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How Figure Out Exactly Much to Risk Per Trade

If you are wondering how much to risk per trade, then this post will show you exactly how to figure it out.

…and it probably isn’t what you think.

First, let’s get some conventional wisdom out of the way.

I’m sure that you have read all of the articles and books (like Market Wizards) that say that you shouldn't risk more than 2% per trade.

Some call it the 2% Rule.

As a general rule of thumb, it’s actually great advice. It will keep most traders out of serious trouble and help them hang around long enough to learn how to trade profitably.

But is the 2% rule optimized?

Not by a long shot.

SEE ALSO: My Favorite Trading Books


If you don’t risk enough per trade, you aren’t maximizing the earning potential of your trading system. Risk too much and you can hit a drawdown that will have irreparable negative long-term effects on your trading psychology.

As traders, we want to avoid both of these scenarios. This is why you need to optimize your risk per trade.

Let’s start by taking a look at why 2% risk is far from optimized.

By the way, I learned this from Walter’s Naked Forex Now course and we talk about it on our Truth About FX podcast. I highly recommend both 🙂

how much to risk per trade in forex

Why the 2% Risk Rule is Not Optimal
Again, the 2% Rule it is a good guideline that will keep most traders out of serious trouble. But it’s probably not ideal for you and your trading strategy.

These statistics need to be taken into account when figuring out how much to risk on each trade.

Your win rate
The percentage drawdown that you want to avoid (AKA your Freakout Point)
Your average win/loss ratio
Without these stats, you are shooting in the dark.

The most important one to have is the drawdown that you want to avoid. Most new traders dream of the millions of dollars that they can make in trading.

But as most professional traders will tell you, focusing on the amount that you can lose is much more important.

If you hit a drawdown that screws with your head, you will go on tilt and possibly lose your entire account. At the very least, you will not trade well until you get over the loss.

So your long-term success absolutely depends on knowing your “breaking point” and that comes from knowing your vital statistics.

How to Figure Out Your Vital Statistics
Luckily, it is easy to figure out these numbers. Here is how to get each of your vital statistics.

Maximum Tolerable Drawdown
The best place to start is the maximum amount of your account that you want to avoid losing.

How do you do that?

It’s pretty simple…

First, imagine a trading account that would represent “a lot of money” to you. This will be different for everyone, so use a number that works for you.

For example, let’s say that $10K is a lot of money to you. Since that is a fairly big account balance for most people, we will use that number in the following exercises.

Now ask yourself how much of that account you would be willing to lose before you start freaking out.

Freaking out

In a $10K account, you might want to stop trading when you lose $2K, or 20%.

That is your maximum drawdown number.

I would actually suggest shaving little off that number, so you have a cushion. This is in case you are hit with some slippage or you fat-finger a trade.

So in this example, you might want to use 18% as the maximum drawdown that you want to avoid.

Once you have this number, it’s time to figure out the other two stats that you need.

Win Rate
Next, you need to know the win rate for your trading strategy. If you have been trading in a live or demo account for awhile, then you can use your current win rate. You should have at least 20 trades or so, to have a valid win rate.

But what if you are not consistently profitable yet?

No problem, simply put your trading system into Forex Tester and backtest it. That will give you a very good idea of how your strategy will perform.

Of course, your live trading performance will not be exactly the same as your backtesting. But having a number that is pretty close is much better than guessing.

For this example, let’s say that your system has a 62% win rate.

Your Average Win/Loss Ratio
Finally, take your average winning trade and divide it by your average losing trade.

To make things simple, let’s say that your average winner is $56 and your average loser is $28. That would give you a ratio of 2.

Again, if you don’t have live trading results, backtest in Forex Tester to get these numbers.

Now that you have the three vital statistics, you can plug them into the drawdown calculator to figure out how much to risk per trade.

How to Use the Drawdown Calculator to Figure Out How Much to Risk Per Trade
Here’s the moment of truth…

Head on over to the drawdown calculator, located on this page. If you want to use the example stats mentioned above, here is what the calculator would look like.

forex drawdown calculator

In this example, you would have a 8.4% chance of hitting a 18% drawdown over 1,000 trades, when risking the recommended 2% per trade. That’s not terrible.

…but it is still very possible.

Keep in mind that your exact result will probably be a little different from my answer because the calculator runs a new simulation each time you click the Calculate button. If you click the button a few times, you can see the range of probabilities to expect.

But let's see if we can get that 8.4% to absolutely zero.

Start playing with your risk per trade until you find a point where your chance of hitting your drawdown is absolutely zero. Click the Calculate button a few times, just to be sure. I would suggest using up to two decimal places for your risk per trade.

With the numbers mentioned above, you would need to risk 1.22% per trade to have a zero percent chance of hitting an 18% drawdown. Now you have the exact amount that you need to risk per trade, to avoid your most feared drawdown, while maximizing the return of the trading system.

But only 1.22% per trade?

Is that really enough?

What if the Risk Per Trade is Too Small?
Chances are pretty good that you will come up with a risk per trade number that you think is too small to grow your trading account significantly.

This is a common mistake that traders make.

They either throw out a perfectly excellent trading system because they think the risk is too small, or they disregard what the calculator says and risk way too much per trade.

Both of these actions usually lead to frustration and a ticket to ride on the Trading Silodrome.

So what can you do to build your trading account faster?

Remember that our friend compounding can help us increase our gains much faster than we might realize.

To see a perfect example, read this post.

When you are able to find a system that is consistently profitable, then you can simply trade it on more currency pairs. Of course, this is provided that your testing shows that it will work on the other pairs too.

You can also test other trading systems and if the results of your testing are good, you can start trading those systems too.

Lather, rinse and repeat until you reach your trading goals.

By layering trading systems and currency pairs, you multiply your trading edge. This can make a seemingly insignificant advantage pay out very well.

Conclusion
If you are just starting out, then risking no more than 2% per trade is a good place to start. In fact, keeping your risk down to 1% is even better.

However, if you have a technical trading strategy that can be backtested or you have a good amount of live or demo trading results, then using the Drawdown Calculator to optimize your position sizing will be a huge help in keeping you out of a heart-crushing drawdown.

Success in trading is all about sticking around long enough to take advantage of excellent trading opportunities. You cannot do that if you lose your account…or your mind.

Figure out your ideal risk per trade beforehand and your trading will be much less stressful.



Disclaimer: Some links on this page are affiliate links. We do make a commission if you purchase through these links, but it does not cost you anything extra and we only promote products and services that we personally use
https://www.tradingheroes.com/how-much-to-risk-per-trade/

Is Your Stop Loss Too Tight? Here’s How to Find Out

I personally believe that having a great entry is best way to improve your trading results. Others argue that the exit is the only thing that really matters and a monkey could throw darts at a board to pick stocks, and with the right exit, that strategy could still be profitable.

Monkey picking trades

That might be mathematically true. But I've found that most traders need to enter at a point where they can place a stop loss that makes sense and have a good shot at making a reasonable profit.

In reality, the are both important, but a good entry makes your job much easier.

But how do you know where to set your stop loss?

Is Your Stop Loss Too Tight? The Arguments for Both
On one hand, it's exciting to set a very tight stop and potentially get a 9R+ trade. After all, the smaller your risk, the higher your chances of having a payout that is multiple times what you have at stake. But that also means that you will probably get stopped out more often.

High risk reward trade

On the other hand, the idea of giving your trade room to breathe is enticing too. The markets ebb and flow like the ocean and sometimes there is a large ebb, before the next flow. However, if you give your trade too much room, your returns can suffer because your winners won't pay for your losers.

UPCOMING EVENT (Sep 2018): The Online Trading Summit with Rolf Schlotmann, Yvan Byeajee and...

So which one is better?

The Right Way to Choose the Best Stop Loss For You
The bottom line is that your stop loss should be set at a level where your assumptions about the trade will be proven wrong.

Some traders will tell you that a tight stop loss of 8 to 12 pips is best. Others will tell you that a wide stop of 200 pips or more, is best. Many will tell you to use an indicator like the ATR.

Who should you believe?

Well, they are probably all right…in their own way. As long as they are actually trading what they teach, and not just talking out of their asses, then their method is the best for them.

However, therein lies the secret to your failure.

If their method does not match with your trading personality, then there's a very high probability that you will not be able to trade that method successfully.

It's like dating someone who snores like a horse…and you are a light sleeper.

Eventually something has to give, if you want to get a good night's sleep.

Get some sleep

So just like dating is a way to try out a relationship before you make any long term commitments, testing a trading system is away to try out a system before you risk any real money.

Here's how to do it…

First, start with the system, as it is taught. It doesn't matter where you get the trading system from. The trading method might work as-is, without any tweaks.

To learn some trading systems go here.

Do a complete round of backtesting on the currency pair and timeframe of your choice. It's important to do a complete test so you get an idea of what you can expect. I recommend using Forex Tester, but there is other software out there.

Stop loss too tight?

Then change the stop loss and do a complete round of testing again.

Compare your results.

This will tell you which stop loss should work better.

But don't stop there. Test as many different stop loss levels as you need to.

Feel free to experiment at this point. It's only testing.

Once you have one that works in backtesting it's time to move to forward testing. This is the step before going live, so use a demo account or a very small real money account.

Forward testing will allow you to iron out any quirks that are going on between your backtesting and forward testing.

When you have something that works in both rounds of testing, then you are ready to go live.

Going through this process will help you understand the best place to put your stops.

How to Fix Artificially Tight Stops
Before I end this post, there is one more issue that I must address. Some traders purposely set very tight stops because the correct stop loss is “too far away” and they will lose too much money.

If this is you, then you are simply trading with the wrong broker.

Trading mini lots (1,000 units) with a $1,000 account is a recipe for disaster. No wonder you want to keep your stops uber tight.

However, trading that same account with nano lots will allow you to take the correct amount of risk, usually 1% or less. When you are able to take exactly the same amount of risk on each trade, you will make a lot more money.

Conclusion
I hope that this guide has helped you understand what it takes to figure out if your stops are too tight, or not. There's no fancy indicator or formula.

Many people will be too lazy to do the testing to figure this out.

But not you, right?!

If you follow this process, you will know once and for all, if your stops are too tight, or if they are just right.

Let me know how it went in the comments below…


Disclaimer: Some links on this page are affiliate links. We do make a commission if you purchase through these links, but it does not cost you anything extra and we only promote products and services that we personally use and wholeheartedly believe in. A portion of the proceeds are donated to my charity partners.
https://www.tradingheroes.com/stop-loss-too-tight/

Forex Side-Testing Account: How to Leverage Fantasy Sports Dynamics

Do you play fantasy sports? Maybe you have participated in an office pool or played with some friends. I play fantasy (American) football every year with some friends and I came in second in my league this past season.

Fantasy league results

It is a fun diversion and it makes watching the games even more interesting.

Of course, trading players led me to think of the correlations between Forex trading and fantasy sports.

Although they are not directly related, I believe that there is an element to fantasy sports that can give you huge leverage in helping you achieve your full potential as a currency trader.

Here’s what I mean…

How Fantasy Sports Can Help Traders
You will never get Lionel Messi, Christiano Ronoldo, Gareth Bale and Neymar Jr. on the same team in real life. No team has that much money.

But what if?

SEE ALSO: The Yoga Teacher Who Became a Successful Forex Trader

Soccer stadium

This is what makes fantasy sports so much fun.

We have the opportunity to manage a team of players that we think would win the championship, without annoying restrictions like salary caps, owners, complex contracts or player egos.

Now what would happen if we did something similar in trading? But instead of trading fantasy players, we traded Forex with the same disregard for many of the constraints of your normal trading.

At this point, you are probably thinking that this sounds a lot like the free demo account that you can get from any Forex broker.

It’s not.

I call it a Side Testing trading account.

Who a Side Testing (ST) Account is For
A Side Testing account is an account that you open to answer these two questions:

What would my performance look like if I took the trades I decided to pass on?
What would my performance look like if I took the trades I missed?
So a ST account is for traders who:

Feel that they are being too indecisive.
Feel that they are missing out on a lot of profitable trades.
If you fall into one, or both of these categories, keep reading because here's how a Side Testing account can help you.

Benefits of a Side Testing Account
The bottom line is that a ST account will allow you to see:

If you are talking yourself out of good trades.
If you are missing good trades and more importantly, how to fix that.
Let's break these down individually….

Talking Yourself Out of Good Trades
No matter how much you test a trading system, trading it with real money can be a totally different ballgame. You might second guess your entry every time you see a potential setup. This is especially true if your setup is more on the discretionary end of the spectrum.

So a ST account gives you the freedom to take a trade that looks good, even if you would have passed on it in your primary account. When you add the results from your ST account to the results in your live account, you can track if the trades you are passing on would have improved your profitability.

We often beat ourselves up about the trades that we didn't take and worked out, but we tend to forget about the trades that we passed on that ended up being losers. Keeping these trades in a separate account allows you to get a totally objective look at your results.

…without putting your primary account at risk.

Missing Profitable Trades
Side testing account trade

Another thing that a ST account will help you figure out is what your trading results would look like if you were able to take all of the trade setups that you missed.

You might miss trades because:

You were sleeping
You didn't check the charts that day because you were too tired from work
You had technical difficulties like a bad internet connection or a computer malfunction
You had to work
Obviously, you cannot avoid some of these scenarios. However, tracking your missed trades will allow you possibly figure out ways around them. For example, maybe you can automate part of your trading or you can put backups in place so you are prepared for unforeseen events.

Another realization that you may come to is that you have to find another trading strategy or change your trading timeframe because your current strategy doesn't work with your lifestyle.

You might also be beating yourself up over your current trading results, when in reality, you are simply missing a few trades that would make you much more profitable. This realization can be a huge psychological boost and give you the confidence to keep trading.

Now that you know how a ST account can help improve your trading, let's get into how to actually setup an account.

Side Testing Account Requirements
There is really just one requirement that needs to be fulfilled before opening a ST account.

You will only open a ST account if you have a trading method that has been tested and has passed a backtest and/or forward test. If you do not have a strategy that has positive expectancy in testing, then a ST account is useless.

Go back to testing and find a strategy that works. Once you have that, you can now move on to opening your Fantasy account.

Choosing a Broker
I personally believe that your ST account should be a live account with real money. You need to simulate some of the the psychology of trading real money and a demo account will not do that. Ultimately, this is your call, but this is what I recommend.

However, it does not have to be a normal sized account. You can use a small account at a broker that allows nano lots.

Obviously, small is relative to your current situation. It could be as little as $100 or as big as $1,000. Using nano lots allows you to take the optimal amount of risk on each trade, even with such a small account.

Your account should also be at your current broker, if possible. Then you won't have to flip back and forth between different brokers. The less friction there is in the process, the more likely you are to do it.

Many brokers allow you to open a sub-account without submitting additional paperwork.

Take advantage of this.

Trading in Your Side Testing Account
Since there are are both real-time and hindsight elements to a ST account, placing trades will take a little more work than with a regular live account, but it's worth it. Here's what you have to do to make it work.

Position Sizing in Your Account
One thing that you should not change in your ST account is the amount of risk on each trade. For example, if you have figured out your optimal risk with this guide, then take that same amount of risk in your account.

For example, I risk 0.7% per trade on a trending outside bar setup. So I would take the same amount of risk in my ST account.

Journaling Your Trades
The key to an effective ST account is your trading journal. In this case, a simple spreadsheet is the best way that I have found to keep track of your trades. Log both your real-time and hindsight trades on the spreadsheet.

It doesn't have to be fancy, it can simply have the following:

Open date
Currency pair
Open price
Stop loss
Take profit
Percentage risk
Close date
Close price
Percentage profit/loss
Analyzing the Results
Then add up your results at the end of the month and see how much better or worse your results would have been if you had taken those trades in your primary account.

Remember to calculate everything in your ST account in terms of percentage profit or loss. This way you can roughly tell how much your ST trades would add or subtract to your trading.

Keep it simple and you can get all of the benefits, without much additional work.

Other Benefits of a Side Testing Account
But that's not all!

There are a couple more potential side-benefits of a ST account.

When you are taking every single trade that you see and you even get to “trade” the trades that you missed, it acts like a “release valve” that can reduce the pressure to take every single trade in your primary account.

A second benefit is that you might start to see further optimizations that could increase your returns. You have to be very selective when trading your primary account.

…and for good reason. To give yourself the best shot at being profitable at the end of the month, you need to only take premium setups.

But using a ST account gets you involved in more trades. When you look at more trades, you will get more practice, which will ultimately make you a better trader.

Conclusion
A Side Testing account is not for everyone. However, it you are struggling with indecision and/or missing trades, this technique can help you gain more confidence in your decisions and figure out how to stop missing profitable opportunities. This just one of the ways that you can address your trading weaknesses.

This is just one of the many strategies that we teach inside TraderEvo, our complete program for taking you from zero to hero in Forex trading.

To learn more, click here.
https://www.tradingheroes.com/side-testing-account-trading/

Fastest Ways to Calculate Forex Tester Lot Size with Percent Risk

I get this question a lot:

“How do you calculate the correct lot size in Forex Tester, based on percentage risk?”

Forex Tester is a great piece of software that has helped many traders become consistently profitable. But it kills me that you cannot enter a trade based on percentage risk.

TradingView has this feature for live trading, which I use all the time.

Tradingview percent risk

Without a way to accurately calculate the correct lot size, you may make mistakes, which will lead to inaccurate testing results or lost time, when you have to go back and retest the trade.

SEE ALSO: The Best Trading Books of All-Time

So if you are having the same frustration, here are two ways that you can easy calculate your lot size in Forex Tester, by using percentage risk. One method is free and takes some time, while the other is paid and instant.

Either way there is something for everyone.

If you prefer the text version, it is provided below the video.

…and yes, this works for both Forex Tester 2 and Forex Tester 3 🙂

How to Calculate Forex Tester Lot Size Based on Percentage Risk Video Tutorial


Roll Your Own Spreadsheet
Traders ask me how to setup a spreadsheet for testing and it's actually quite easy.

Here's how you do it…

First, open your favorite spreadsheet program. If you don't have one, you can sign up for Google Drive for free and you can create your spreadsheet there. It doesn't matter which program you use because the calculations are pretty simple.

Next, create these row titles:

Account Balance (entered)
% Risk (entered)
$ Risk (calculated)
$ Per Pip (entered)
Pips Risk (entered)
Lots (calculated)
Here's the formula for the $ Risk row:

$ risk calculator

This is more of a double check to see that the calculation is working correctly and to double check your losses against this risk number.

Here is the lot size calculation:

Lot size calculator

Spreadsheet Benefits
Easy to implement
Free
Spreadsheet Downsides
Takes time to change settings at the beginning of each test
You have to flip back and forth between your Forex Tester screen and the spreadsheet
So if you don't want to spend any money, then the spreadsheet is the way to go. However, if you do a lot of testing and you want the most efficient way of calculating your lot size, then you need to have a Forex Tester script.

Use the Snapdragon Forex Tester Lot Size Calculator Script
Using a spreadsheet to calculate lot size is obviously not instant. So it will slow you down.

But this method gives you an instant calculation.

Once you setup this script, you can simply use hotkeys to enter your trades, which speeds things up considerably.

I have setup Control + 1 and Control + 2 as my keyboard shortcuts for short and long trades, respectively.

Long Short ScriptsHere is the settings window for one of the scripts:

Forex Tester script settings

The settings can be changed individually, so you can have different settings for both, if you so choose.

Most of the settings are pretty straightforward, but here are the ones that really make this script worth using:

Entry Method: You can select Bracket bar (brackets current bar with stop loss and pending entry order) or Use pending order levels (enter a pending order and the script will automatically calculate lot size).
Risk Definition: You can either risk fixed percent of equity balance or fixed dollar amount per trade.
Take Profit Type: Set the R multiple of your profit target. For example, if you want to test a 5R profit target, the script will target 5 times your risk as the take profit.
Script Benefits
Instant lot size calculation and trade execution
Different settings available, based on your trading method
Less mental calculations means less decision fatigue and you can usually test longer and more accurately
Script Downsides
It may not work for all trading strategies, so be sure to learn the details of how it works
You do have to pay a few bucks to get it
If you value your time and want the fastest possible lot size calculator available, then this script is for you.

Click here to download it.

Conclusion
So there you have it, the two fastest methods that I know of to calculate the correct lot size on your backtesting trades, based on percent risk. Either way, these solutions will speed up your backtesting and allow you to see results faster than having to manually calculate risk on each trade and possibly making a mistake.

If you don't have Forex Tester yet, I would highly recommend it. I have negotiated a discount for Trading Heroes readers, so you can go to this page to get that discount.

Do you know of any other methods to calculate the exact lot size in Forex Tester, based on percentage risk?



Disclaimer: Some links on this page are affiliate links. We do make a commission if you purchase through these links, but it does not cost you anything extra and we only promote products and services that we personally use and wholeheartedly believe in. A portion of the proceeds are donated to my charity partners.
https://www.tradingheroes.com/forex-tester-lot-size-calculator/

How to Use TradingView Bar Replay

TradingView Bar Replay is a feature that you should take advantage of, especially if you don't have backtesting software like Forex Tester. In this post, I'll show you how it works and what it is good for.

If you prefer the text version, it is provided below the video.

TradingView Bar Replay Tutorial Video

To start using TradingView Bar Replay for free, click here.

How to Get Started With Bar Replay
Turn Bar Replay On
To turn on Bar Replay, click on the icon in the toolbar at the top of the screen.

Bar replay start button

Adjust the Settings
After you turn it on, you will see a new toolbar appear on your active chart. You will also see a vertical red line appear where your cursor is.

SEE ALSO: The Best Trading Books of All-Time

New toolbar

The red line marks where the replay will begin, so do not click until you have scrolled back to where you want the playback to begin.

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You can use the scroll control on your mouse the move the chart back or click and drag the chart to move it. Clicking and dragging will not set the start point.

Start the Replay
Once you have scrolled back to where you want to begin the replay, click once on the chart and you will be in Replay mode. Now click on the Play button to start the replay.

This is what it looks like:

TradingView replay

That's it, simple right? Now let's take a look at how you can use this to improve your trading.

How it Can Improve Your Trading
There are a few different ways that this feature can help you improve your trading. If you can think of any other use cases, feel free to leave them in the comments at the end of this post.

Reviewing Your Old Trades
You can use the playback feature to analyze what a chart looked like before you entered a trade.

When you look at a trade a few days later, you will usually be able to see it from a more objective standpoint. This is because the emotion surrounding the trade has dissipated.

So a follow-up analysis of your trades could reveal what you do well and what you need to fix.

Backtesting
You could use this as a free backtesting platform. Of course, the currency pairs that you test would need to have enough historical data available. But if there is enough data to do a solid test, then you would just need a simple spreadsheet to track your trades and you are good to go.

Since TradingView makes it easy to do screenshots, it's also easy create flash cards of good setups, for later.

Practice
Another helpful use of this feature is to replay premium setups, so they get engrained in your brain. You can keep a spreadsheet of dates when good setups for your trading system happened and you can use this replay feature to play them forward a few times to get some practice, without going through the entire process of backtesting.

But There are Some Limitations
In reading the blog post about this feature and trying it out for myself, I found that there are currently a few limitations to Bar Replay.

Some charts only have limited historical data
Some charts like continuous futures do not work with TradingView Bar Replay
You cannot create demo orders in Replay mode, only live trades with real-time data
You cannot use Japanese charts
Some indicators don't work
You cannot use indicators that have a security function in playback
I consider these relatively minor though and I hope that they will remove some of these limitations in the future.

Final Thoughts on TradingView Bar Replay
It seems like TradingView might be building up to creating a manual backtesting product to rival software like Forex Tester.

That's just my guess, but it would be a logical progression from this Bar Replay feature. If that happens, it would be freaking fantastic!

As I mentioned here, it's about time that we get away from the antiquated Metatrader paradigm and start embracing progressive technology in Forex trading.

To learn more about all of the great features of TradingView, follow their blog.


Disclaimer: Some links on this page are affiliate links. We do make a commission if you purchase through these links, but it does not cost you anything extra and we only promote products and services that we personally use and wholeheartedly believe in. A portion of the proceeds are donated to my charity partners.
https://www.tradingheroes.com/tradingview-bar-replay/